Policy Bulletin 012: How Regulatory Uncertainty Shapes Maritime Green Technology Adoption

Stronger environmental regulations are widely seen as essential for maritime decarbonisation. In this research we show that the relationship between regulation and green technology adoption is more complex and can have unintended consequences. Regulatory stringency can lead to slower technology adoption and there can be uneven impacts on profitability within the sector.

 

Key findings are as follows:

  • More stringent regulation does not always encourage investment, conditions depending, firms may delay technology adoption.
  • Regulatory uncertainty can create a “wait-and-see” effect especially among competing firms
  • Impacts are not evenly distributed across the sector as some firms are in a better position to respond to regulatory change.
  • Uncertainty can contribute to market concentration. Larger or better-resourced firms may benefit disproportionately, potentially crowding out smaller firms.

 

Policy Recommendations

To support effective maritime decarbonisation, policymakers at Department for Transport should consider the following:

  • Clear and credible policy signals. Publish long-term regulatory roadmaps and implementation timelines. Minimise unnecessary policy reversals or abrupt changes in targets.
  • Encourage early adoption. Consider targeted incentives and support mechanisms for first movers. Reduce uncertainty around future compliance requirements.
  • Monitor market impacts. Assess how regulations affect different types and sizes of operator. Consider measures to avoid accelerating market concentration or disadvantaging smaller firms.
  • Role of market dynamics. Technology adoption decisions and regulatory expectations influence one another. Policy frameworks should account for how sector behaviour may change in response to uncertainty.

 

This Policy Bulletin is based on the research publication Zheng, W., Song, D.P., Jiang, Z.Z., An, S.M. ‘The paradox of stringent environmental policies: the feedback between regulatory uncertainty and green technology adoption in competitive shipping’, Asia Pac. J. Mark. Logist., 2026, https://doi.org/10.1108/APJML-09-2025-1854

 

Recommended citation:

Song, D., & Copeland, C. L. (2026). How Regulatory Uncertainty Shapes Maritime Green Technology Adoption. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23499896

 

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Policy Bulletin 011: Smarter Scheduling in Yards for Cleaner Ports

Ports are electrifying yard equipment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but full electrification takes years due to investment costs and grid supply capacity. During this transition, ports operate mixed fleets of diesel, hybrid, and electric yard cranes. Managing these cranes efficiently is essential for reducing energy use and costs, emissions, and congestion. This research outlines how improvements in modelling algorithms can optimise crane scheduling during phased upgrades to lower both emissions and costs.

 

Key findings:

  • Cable length affects efficiency and safety risks and is optimal at around 40 bay lengths
  • Type of crane placement and how all cranes are configured in a yard affects emissions
  • Adopting hybrid and cable‑powered cranes early are cost‑effective in the transition
  • Effective truck time management can reduce congestion and reduce operating costs
  • Carbon pricing can be built directly into scheduling decisions

Mixed‑fleet crane operations are expected to be common for many years. Smarter scheduling, using modelling solutions such as developed here, can help ports cut emissions, manage limited power, and maintain safe, efficient operations in the transition to fully electric yards.

 

Policy Recommendations:

There are some policy improvement suggestions relevant to both Department for Transport and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero as follows:

  • Carbon pricing and other financial incentives can encourage crane‑upgrade decisions
  • Safety‑distance standards are required for cabling of multi‑crane operations
  • Support the use of smarter scheduling tools to handle mixed fleets and truck arrivals to save on costs, emissions and congestion
  • For grid upgrades at ports prioritise where electric cranes are most constrained.

 

This Policy Bulletin is based on the research publication B. Liu, F. Wang, D. Sheng, X. Zhang, J. Zheng, and D. Song, ‘Scheduling heterogeneous yard cranes for port decarbonization: power constraints, crane interference, and safety distances’, Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev., vol. 206, p. 104581, Feb. 2026, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2025.104581

 

Recommended citation:

Song, D., & Copeland, C. L. (2026). Smarter Scheduling in Yards for Cleaner Ports. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23499059

 

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Policy Bulletin 010: Shipping Freight Costs and UK Inflation Dynamics

Shipping is fundamental for the UK economy, transporting c.85% by weight of the country’s international freight trade. Using an econometric model, we show that shipping freight costs are statistically significantly associated with the level and volatility of UK inflation. Scenario simulations, however, indicate that these inflationary effects are predominantly transitory, with impacts decaying over time even under high shipping cost increases. For instance, even a doubling of container freight costs raises inflation by ~0.2% above baseline over a 2-year horizon, declining to 0.03% after a decade.

 

It is found that:

  • Increases in shipping freight rates may contribute to UK inflation, both its level and its volatility.
  • Inflation effects are highly dependent on the magnitude of freight rate increases.
  • Degree of increase varies by shipping type; most from containers, then refined oil products, followed by dry bulk, and finally unrefined oil carriers.
  • Contribution varies in the short (<1 yr), medium (2-5 yrs), and long term (7-10 yrs):
    • Greatest effects on inflation levels and volatility in the short term.
    • Effects significantly decay over time, both inflation levels and volatility, negligible in the long term.

 

Policy Recommendations:

  • Monetary policymakers should explicitly monitor shipping-related cost pressures as a source of short-term inflation uncertainty.
  • Contribution to inflation from increased shipping costs varies by segment – highest is from container ships; attention needed for different vessel types.
  • Potential inflationary effects from shipping decarbonisation measures are highly unlikely to persist over the medium to long term.
  • There can be other, much more extreme shocks to the sector (e.g. due to geopolitical turbulence) that can lead to persistently higher levels of inflation.

 

This Bulletin is based on the publication: Kyriakou, I., Ghahramanpour, S., Marchese, M. & Moutzouris, I. (2026). Shipping Freight Costs and U.K. Inflation Dynamics. Commodity Insights Digest, Summer 2026. https://www.bayes-cid.com/pdf/issues/2026-summer/publications/CID-Summer-2026_Kyriakou-etal-072826.pdf

Recommended citation:

Kyriakou, I., Ghahramanpour, S., Marchese, M., Moutzouris, I., Copeland, C. L. (2026). Shipping Freight Costs and UK Inflation Dynamics. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20268869

 

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Policy Bulletin 009: Floating Solar Power for Maritime Decarbonisation

Decarbonisation at seaports is constrained by limited land availability, grid capacity, and infrastructure. This bulletin summarises research assessing the potential for floating solar power (FSP) systems to provide renewable electricity for port operations and vessel charging.

 

Some key findings from installing FSP systems at seaports:

  • Can reduce reliance on grid electricity and fossil-based fuels
  • Lower energy storage requirements and improve system efficiency, supporting more stable energy supply
  • Payback periods are relatively short c.3–4 years under favourable conditions
  • Emissions reductions are significant compared to conventional diesel-based energy systems (on a whole life cycle basis)
  • With wireless charging infrastructure FSP provides a scalable pathway to electrifying vessels, particularly ferries and short-sea shipping.

Overall, floating solar can provide a viable, port-based renewable energy solution, contributing to maritime decarbonisation while overcoming land and infrastructure constraints.

 

Policy Recommendations:

Financial support and policy mechanisms can accelerate the adoption of FSP technologies, wider electrification of the maritime sector and contribute to the UK’s net zero emissions target.

 

This bulletin is based on a publication by Qing Qin, Lukman Adeboye, Khalifa Aliyu Ibrahim, Patrick Luk, Ying Xie, Patrick Verdin, Zhenhua Luo, Luofeng Huang titled “Techno-economic and environmental assessment of floating solar power with innovative charging systems for decarbonizing maritime operations in the UK“.

 

Recommended citation:

Xie, Y.& Copeland, C. L. (2026). Floating Solar Power for Maritime Decarbonisation. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21469561

 

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Policy Bulletin 008: Port emissions reduction through energy-aware ferry scheduling

Ferry ports have limited shore power (cold ironing) facilities, and ferry fleets are in the process of transitioning to hybrid (diesel and electric battery power) vessels. This research demonstrates that optimising berth allocations can deliver immediate reductions in port emissions while increasing the return on investment in shore-power infrastructure, while serving the same travel demand, and reducing the need for grid upgrades.

Key findings:

  • Energy-Aware Scheduling modelling can reduce emissions by 12-40% and reduce diesel fall back at berth
  • Shore power sees further emissions reduction up to 70% with a ferry fleet transition to  hybrid
  • Fewer, fuller crossings can reduce emissions per crossing by up to 40% this is by sharing flexible freight across operators while meeting each operator’s car demand.

Policy recommendations:

  • Make energy aware scheduling a priority throughout transition phases
  • Timing upgrades to the grid and battery reinforcement based on evidence of optimisation will reduce overbuild risk

This bulletin is based on a publication by Dr Asefe Forghani, Professor Ying Xie, Dr Mahdi Jahangard, Professor Dongping Song and Dr Yuanjun Feng titled “Energy-aware scheduling and berth allocation for ferries under phased cold ironing upgrades”

 

Recommended citation:

Forghani, A.& Copeland, C. L. (2026). Port emissions reduction through energy-aware ferry scheduling. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21455158

 

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Policy Bulletin 007: CO2 Emission Reduction Technologies for Shipping

Maritime policy bulletin 007 covers CO2 emission reduction technologies for shipping.

In recent years maritime shipping has emitted approx. one gigatonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) per annum. Based on current trends this is projected to increase 150-250% by 2050, but the International Maritime Organisation has set targets of 30% reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050.

This work reviewed the potential for different emission reduction technologies to reach those targets.

This bulletin is based on a recent publication by Dr Sina Fadaie,  Professor Jean-Baptiste R. G. Souppez and Professor Patricia Thornley titled A systematic review of technologies, measures, and CO2 emission reduction potential for maritime transport decarbonisation.

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Suggested citation:

Fadaie, S., Souppez, J.-B., Thornley, P., & Copeland, C. L. (2025). CO2 Emission Reduction Technologies for Shipping. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20141891

Policy Bulletin 006: Regional Ports – economic and emissions advantages

Maritime policy bulletin 006 covers the economic and emissions advantages of regional ports.

Ports and shipping are subject to increasing pressure to decarbonise. This provides opportunities to reconsider shipping routes and to enhance port competitiveness. This bulletin provides an overview of an economic and environmental impact assessment of rerouting Asia-Europe deep sea container ships via the Port of Liverpool as a case study.

The findings could support a place-based policy strategy to promote the use of regional ports in deep-sea container shipping. This would lead to lower logistics costs and lower emissions contributing to achieving national decarbonisation targets.

This bulletin is based on a recent publication by Prof. Dong-Ping Song titled Rethinking Routes: The Case for Regional Ports in a Decarbonizing World.

To download the full policy bulletin, please click the download button above.

To read other bulletins, please see: Resources – UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub

 

Suggested citation:

Song, D., & Copeland, C. L. (2025). Regional Ports – economic and emissions advantages. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20141611

Policy Bulletin 005: Wind Assisted Ship Propulsion for Decarbonisation

Maritime policy bulletin 005 covers Wind Assisted Ship Propulsion for Decarbonisation.

A key focus of maritime decarbonisation is on alternative fuels but availability, costs,logistical and safety concerns remain a barrier to adoption. Wind propulsion, a historically proven and readily available technology, is now being adopted in new innovative ways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This bulletin summarises the state of the art and policy challenges in promoting wind-assisted ship propulsion.

This bulletin is based on a recent publication by Mr Jiajie Huang and  Prof. Jean-Baptiste Souppez titled  State of the Art in Wind Assisted Ship Propulsion for Maritime Decarbonisation and Sustainable Shipping: A Systematic Review.

To download the full policy bulletin, please click the download button above.

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Suggested citation:

Souppez, J.-B., Huang, J., & Copeland, C. L. (2025). Wind Assisted Ship Propulsion for Decarbonisation. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20141574

Policy Bulletin 004: Scrubber investment and market prices

Maritime policy bulletin 004 covers scrubber investment and market prices.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) introduced in 2020 a regulation restricting sulphur shipping emissions to 0.5%. Rather than purchasing more expensive low sulphur fuels, a scrubber can be installed on ships to meet this regulation with conventional fuel. Scrubber installation is a shipping technology that has high capital expenditure but enhances profitability. This is due to fuel cost savings when operating the vessel or higher freight income when leasing it out. Volatile fuel prices and freight rates mean that making such investment decisions is challenging.

This bulletin is based on research by Dr. Yao Shi and Dr. Ioannis Moutzouris of City St. Georges, University of London.

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Suggested citation:

Shi, Y., Moutzouris, I., & Copeland, C. L. (2025). Scrubber investment and market prices. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20141537

Policy Bulletin 003: The economics of shipping decarbonisation

Maritime Policy Bulletin 003 explores the economics of shipping decarbonisation, offering financial insights into how effectively the maritime industry is aligning environmental objectives with economic performance.

Policy Bulletin 003 draws on the publication by Dr. Yao Shi and Dr. Ioannis Moutzouris of City St George’s, University of London, entitled “The economics of shipping decarbonisation: Carbon, production, and allocative efficiencies”.

This bulletin presents a summary of allocation efficiency across 14 vessel types. It highlights key findings on carbon efficiency and provides financial perspectives that inform actionable policy recommendations aimed at accelerating the adoption of greener fuels.

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Suggested citation:

Moutzouris, I., Shi, Y., & Copeland, C. L. (2025). The economics of shipping decarbonisation. UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20141495