“Abstract

In 2020, the International Maritime Organization implemented a limit to the sulphur content emitted by vessels. To comply with it, a vessel should either incur the capital cost to be retrofitted with a scrubber or burn fuels that emit less sulphur but are more expensive. We examine this dilemma by developing a Vector Error Correction Model that links freight rates, fuel prices, and the green investment decision of scrubber installation. The results, across the tanker and dry bulk sectors from 2021 to 2024, suggest that the freight premium of scrubber-fitted vessels positively depends on the spread between very low-and high-sulphur fuel oil prices and negatively on the size of the scrubberfitted fleet. Scrubber investment, in turn, is determined by the past freight premium and the fuel spread. Being the first to investigate the interplay between green shipping investment and price uncertainty, our findings yield significant industry and policy implications.”

 

Moutzouris, Ioannis and Marchese, Malvina and Papapostolou, Nikos C. and Efstathiou, Angelos and Shi, Yao, Green Investment Under Market Uncertainty: Scrubber Installation in Shipping (February 10, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5130549 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5130549

The publication is also available via: https://www.bayes-cid.com/pdf/issues/2025-summer/publications/CID-Summer-2025-Scrubber-040325.pdf

For related publications please see Resources – UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub